In my opinion it depends on when and why your property was appraised. An appraisal can vary between appraisers. Keep in mind that an appraisal is sort of a "snapshot" of value at that particular time based on the market conditions at that time. Also, it could be that your appraisal was based on a necessary target that you needed to achieve for the refinance. I have seen cases where an appraiser may "stretch" a value to hit your necessary target (within reason, hopefully). An appraisal typically uses three methods of valuation- income approach, market (comparable sales) approach and cost approach. If the dynamics of your market have changed drastically since the appraisal, it could be off by more than the range you suggest. Also, there could be potential uses for that property that could demand a much higher price if the opportunity exists. Unlike some "assessed values" that can vary depending on how close the taxing authority is to market value, I would hope that an appraisal using the best available information at that time would be pretty close to market value under the circumstances at that time. If you look at the appraisal, it should have language that specifies a value as of a specified date. If the appraisal was made last week, I may expect one thing, but if it were made 6 months, 9 months or longer I would expect another.
The important thing to note is that there is no "rule of thumb" if that is what you are really asking.
Aug 20, 2009